Posted by Xoken.org – According to data from coinmarketcap.com, Friday (23/2) at 10.57 WIB, the price of Bitcoin was trading at US$ 51,036 or the equivalent of Rp. 706,042 million. In the last 24 hours, the price of this king of crypto assets fell 1.07%. As for the last seven days, the price fell 2.38%.
Why is the price of Bitcoin weakening ahead of the halving moment?
According to Fyqieh Fachrur, Tokocrypto trader, the price of Bitcoin is in direct conflict with liquidity at the level of US$ 53,000 in the middle of this week. That failure to rise triggered a sell-off, resulting in a deeper decline below US$ 52,000. This was an important level for market players last weekend.
Now, market players tend to see the price levels of US$ 50,000 and US$ 48,000 as the next potential support area. Moreover, the halving moment is getting closer in less than 60 days.
The Bitcoin halving, which is expected to occur between April 20-22, 2024, will increasingly attract the attention of investors and traders. The halving event has a significant impact on Bitcoin supply, as the coin reward for mining Bitcoin blocks will be halved.
“This is a mechanism that has been programmed to reduce Bitcoin’s inflation rate and has historically triggered price increases,” said Fyqieh in the Tokocrypto News Flash released February 22, 2024.
According to Fyqieh, market players need to be aware that the Bitcoin halving trend since it began in 2009, has experienced a recurring theme. A significant price drop usually precedes each halving, which then opens up the opportunity for the next price spike.
For example, back in 2012, Bitcoin’s dramatic price drop of 50.78% occurred just months before the halving. However, Bitcoin rose to new heights afterward.
A similar pattern also occurred in 2016 and 2020, with pre-halving corrections of 40.37% and 63.09% respectively, followed by a strong post-halving recovery.
In early 2024, the price of Bitcoin did rise by 21.17%, fueling speculation of an impending bullish market. However, if the historical pattern repeats itself, then the market may be preparing for a correction.
Fyqieh analysis, Bitcoin has the potential to fall below US$ 50,000, before rising post-halving. Traders and investors will continue to try to lift the BTC price above the US$ 53,000 resistance. A successful retest of this level would imply a stronger uptrend, with a target area above US$ 54,000.
“Even though there is a correction below US$ 50,000, Bitcoin has the potential to reach a peak between US$ 58,000 to US$ 60,000,” predicted Fyqieh.
So, despite the downside risks, it is important to remember the potential for fantastic price increases after the halving. He noted that in 2012, 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin prices jumped by 11,000%, 3,072% and 700% respectively. This period of bullish momentum lasted between 365 and 549 days, reflecting the huge impact the halving had on market dynamics.
“If the upcoming bullish market reflects past trajectories, expectations could dictate Bitcoin’s next market peak sometime in April or October 2025,” Fyqieh guessed.