Posted by Xoken.org – The price of Bitcoin has surged more than 60% in the year to May 2024, driven by inflows into BTC ETFs in the US and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed.
According to Bitcoin Monthly Returns data, Bitcoin’s performance in May was quite impressive with an increase of 11.07% (MoM), compared to April which fell by 14.76%.
Tokocrypto trader, Fyqieh Fachrur, said that based on a combination of on-chain, fundamental and technical indicators, Bitcoin may experience further increases in June, potentially reaching US$75,000 or around IDR 1.22 billion by the end of the month.
Bitcoin’s ability to reach US$75,000 comes from a symmetrical triangle pattern that usually signals the continuation of a bullish trend. On May 31, BTC price approached the top of the triangle, eyeing a break above the upper trendline, which could push the price towards US$74,000-US$75,000 in June, depending on the breakout point.
“This breakout point may be around US$69,000, which coincides with Bitcoin’s rising trend line support,” Fyqieh analyzed in a press release, Wednesday (5/6/2024).
Additionally, Bitcoin’s volatility continues to captivate investors, and recent economic developments in the United States may determine its next big move. The imminent release of inflation data for May is in the spotlight.
If inflation in the US slows enough to 3.3% or lower, this could push the price of Bitcoin back to its all-time high of US$73,000 or around IDR 1.18 billion.
“However, if the CPI results exceed expectations, the momentum could weaken. The higher-than-expected CPI results have caused a decline in Bitcoin prices. Market participants hope that there will be a further boost to this bullish momentum with positive NFP (non-farm payroll) data, so indicates a slowdown in inflation and increases the chances of interest rate cuts in June and July,” explained Fyqieh.
If the latest CPI data to be released on June 12 is below estimates, this could increase investor confidence and spur a new wave of Bitcoin buying. Lower inflation not only supports Bitcoin but also increases the perception of the digital asset as a hedge against inflation.
Potential Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs
Bitcoin ETF fund inflows in the US are expected to continue increasing throughout June. Last week, Bitcoin ETFs reported incredible net inflows of US$242 million per day, indicating a resurgence in buy-side demand. Considering the daily selling pressure from miners of US$32 million per day since the Bitcoin halving, this ETF’s buying pressure is almost eight times greater.
“The large inflow into Bitcoin ETFs reflects increased investor confidence and suggests that the market may be ready for a further rally, especially as selling pressure from miners eases,” said Fyqieh.
This underlines the significant positive impact of ETFs on the market and the relatively reduced impact of halvings in the future. As a result, Bitcoin price is well positioned to continue its rally into June.
A spot Ethereum ETF in the US has a possibility of launching in late June. K33 Research estimates that an upcoming US spot ETH ETF could see US$4 billion in inflows within five months, leading to price appreciation and a rise in ETH relative to BTC.
The successful launch of an Ethereum ETF could set a positive precedent for Bitcoin ETFs, potentially increasing investor confidence and increasing demand in the crypto market. This further enabled Bitcoin to reach its symmetrical triangle breakout target of US$75,000 (Rp. 1.22 billion) in June.